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Abstract |
Cultural ecosystem services represent nonmaterial benefits people derive from the environment; these benefits include outdoor recreation opportunities (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Changes in climatic conditions are likely to shift the spatial and temporal demand for recreational ecosystem services. Climate change has already expanded the length of the peak visitation season for some public lands (Buckley & Foushee, 2012; Monahan et al., 2016), and is expected to change total visitation at nearly all U.S. National Parks (Fisichelli et al., 2015). However, the effects of climate change on visitation to public lands may vary by season, the location of the public land unit (Hewer & Gough, 2018), and its unique microclimatic conditions (Smith et al., 2018; Wilkins et al., 2021). To date, little is known about the magnitude and spatial variability in these shifts across large geographic extents. Here, our goal is to explore how the seasonal demand for recreational ecosystem services may change across U.S. public lands in the future under different climate change scenarios. Understanding potential future shifts in demand can help land managers plan and prepare for possible regional or seasonal shifts in visitation trends. |
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